Aviation Anthology Vol 1 2026 - Digital Version - Flipbook - Page 28
More recently, Spain became the 21st state to sign
the Charter. The United States has not signed, but its
licensing and safety frameworks point in a broadly
similar direction.
Momentum – significant momentum - has come also
from signatories other than states. More than forty space
sector companies, research bodies and international
organisations signed at the Berlin International Airshow
in June 2024, with many others signalling their intention
to join. Further signature ceremonies have taken place
to include at Spach Tech Expo 2025 and the Amsterdam
Space Symposium 2026. As of January 2026, over 210
organisations, from 34 countries, had signed the Charter.
ESA has rightly characterised engagement and industry
buy-in, as “robust.”
When soft law begins to have bite
The Charter is often described first by what it is not.
It is not binding. It is not a treaty. It does not create
enforceable obligations. That description misses the
point. The Charter does something more subtle, and
ultimately more consequential: it articulates a shared
expectation about industry behaviour. It says, in effect,
that leaving long lived debris behind is no longer
acceptable practice. Not illegal - yet - but increasingly
indefensible.
What is happening now is normalisation. Signing
the Charter no longer signals leadership; it signals
alignment. Not signing starts to raise questions - quietly,
at first - about why. This is how soft law acquires force:
not through sanctions, but through comparison.
A shift that is already under way
Likely, there will be no single moment when debris
neutrality, as heralded by the Zero Debris Charter,
becomes mandatory. No ceremonial pivot. No press
release declaring a new era. Instead, expectations will
harden incrementally. Licensing questions will become
more pointed. Insurance conversations more specific.
Non participation more visible. Eventually, practices that
were once tolerated will simply look outdated.
As ESA’s Head of Space Safety, Holger Krag, has
observed, “preserving the space environment for the
future is not optional; it is a prerequisite for the continued
use of space.” [4]
[1] UN Environment Programme (UNEP) & UN Office for Outer Space
Affairs (UNOOSA). “Safeguarding Space: Environmental Issues, Risks and
Responsibilities” (Issues Note, 2026).
[2] European Space Agency (ESA), Space debris by the numbers (Space
Debris Office, ESOC, updated January 2026); see also United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) & UN Office for Outer Space Affairs
(UNOOSA), Safeguarding Space: Environmental Issues, Risks and
Responsibilities (Issues Note, 2026).
[3] European Space Agency (ESA), The Zero Debris Charter (2023); see
also ESA, Space Debris Mitigation Policy, and Requirements (revised
pursuant to ESA Council at Ministerial Level, 2022), setting the objective
of significantly limiting debris generation in Earth and lunar orbits by
2030 across all future ESA missions, programmes, and activities.
[4] Holger Krag, “A sustainable use of space,” Science 373 (2021).
Insurance and accumulation risk
Unlike many insured hazards, space debris does
not readily dissipate. Objects can remain in orbit for
decades or centuries. While some space debris in low
Earth orbit eventually decays through atmospheric drag,
most debris - particularly in higher orbits - persists for
decades or longer, making dissipation an unreliable
mechanism for managing orbital risk. This means that
hazard levels increase over time. From an insurance and
reinsurance perspective, space debris creates a classic
accumulation problem. A single collision event can
create thousands of new debris objects and materially
alter loss expectations across entire orbital regimes.
For now, debris-related losses remain infrequent
but potentially catastrophic. Against this backdrop,
missions that demonstrably add nothing to the debris
environment offer stability. They do not eliminate risk,
but they do not amplify it.
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DAC Beachcroft
Aviation Anthology 2026 - Volume I
